Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Super Bowl 53 Preview & Prediction

With the AFC and NFC Conference Championships in the books, the table is officially set for Super Bowl 53 which will feature the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams punched their ticket to the big game by knocking off the number one seeds in their respective conferences. In what will be the ninth Super Bowl appearance of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's career, his foe this time around will be a familiar one. Making it to the big dance for the first time since Super Bowl 36 when Brady jump-started his Hall of Fame career with a win over a St. Louis Rams team led by Canton alum Kurt Warner, this Rams team looks to avenge the loss suffered by their "Greatest Show on Turf" brethren and bring the city of Los Angeles its first Super Bowl title since 1983 when the Raiders were still calling SoCal home. With the help of a last-second field goal by kicker Adam Vinatieri, a young Brady helped the Patriots deny the Rams' plans of winning their second title in three years and ignite what would eventually be the start of a dynasty for New England.

Though this might be the same Tom Brady who's made a habit out of winning ballgames only with a lot more mileage on him, these aren't those same Rams he claimed title No. 1 against for a variety of reasons. Obviously they've endured a name change since relocating from St. Louis back to Los Angeles in 2016, but this Rams team also showcases a much scarier defense than that of any Rams team of the past, appropriately nicknamed the "Mob Squad". And unless you're a Tom Brady fanboy, New England native or salty Saints fan, chances are you're rooting for the Rams in this one, much like myself. But let's start with a little background on how both teams got here.
For the Rams who finished the season tied with the Saints for the best record in football at 13-3 and entered the playoffs as a No. 2 seed, the mentality coming into the year was virtually Super Bowl or bust after a busy offseason which included the acquisitions of speedy receiver Brandin Cooks, defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh and the duo of Pro Bowl cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. Not to mention the mid-season acquisition of Dante Fowler and the big paydays given to running back Todd Gurley and defensive tackle Aaron Donald who agreed to contract extensions that would make them the highest-paid players at their respective positions. Getting off to an 8-0 start before falling to the Saints in New Orleans in Week 9, the Rams would be given a chance to avenge their first loss of the season with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line after taking care of the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional round. In a rematch of the Week 9 shootout which saw the Saints walk away with the 45-35 win, the Rams would once again have to come from behind, only this time they would prevail and move on. After watching New Orleans jump out to an early 13-0 lead in the opening quarter, the Rams held Drew Brees and the Saints to only 10-points the rest of the way and received clutch field goals from kicker Greg Zuerlein from 48 and 57 yards to send the game into overtime and ultimately catapult the Rams to the Super Bowl with a 26-23 victory. And while the game lived up to the hype of an NFC Championship, it would be a forgetful day for the officiating crew calling the game as there were a handful of missed calls in this one, but none bigger than the pass interference call that wasn't.

With 1:41 remaining in regulation, Rams defensive back Nickell Robey-Coleman committed what appeared to be an obvious penalty on Tommylee Lewis when he prematurely ran into the Saints receiver without even turning for the ball. What could've resulted in a flag for either helmet to helmet or pass interference -- take your pick, instead was treated as a basic incompletion which sent Saints head coach Sean Payton into a tirade and left the Superdome faithful in a chorus of boo's. The penalty would've likely allowed the Saints to milk the clock before settling for a last-second field goal to punch their ticket to Atlanta. Speaking in front of the media post-game, Payton went on to say that the league office had contacted him after the game and admitted that the officiating crew made a mistake and missed the call. Some are calling it the worst no-call they've ever seen, while others have pointed to another missed call on a face-masking penalty that the Saints got away with while the Rams were in the red zone one possession earlier before having to settle for a field goal. Regardless, it's the Rams who will be advancing to try and get their hands on the franchise's second Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile, the heartbreaking loss is the second in as many years for the Saints in which they've been sent packing in the playoffs after suffering freak occurrences if you will. You may remember how last year ended for them when the Vikings scored on a walk-off touchdown appropriately named the "Minneapolis Miracle" from Case Keenum to Stefon Diggs as time expired.
Now stop me when you've heard this story before, the New England Patriots have won the AFC title and are going to the Super Bowl. The Pats could miss the next ten Super Bowl's and we'd still be tired of seeing them there. However, they do make for some exciting, drama-filled games just about every year they've advanced to the big dance, so I'll give them that. But this was supposed to be the year that the Patriots fell off. This was supposed to be the year that father time caught up to the ageless wonder that is Tom Brady. And just when we began to think that their reign was coming to an end as Bill Belichick's Patriots began the season 1-2 following back to back losses to the lowly Jaguars and Lions, the phoenix rose from the ashes and finished the season 11-5, good enough for the AFC's No. 2 seed and a first round BYE. If we've ever had confidence in any team come playoff time over the last 20 or so years, it's been the Patriots. Regardless of how they get there, once they're in, it's smooth sailing unless you're the opposition. With a stout defense and a knack for playing better football on the road than at home, the Los Angeles Chargers at 12-4 on the year were supposed to be the team to go into Foxborough and upset the Patriots in the Divisional round. Instead, Brady and company dispatched Philip Rivers and the Chargers with ease, taking a 35-7 lead into the half before toying with them the rest of the way and allowing a pair of garbage time touchdowns in a 41-28 shellacking.

Then came the Chiefs who had vengeance on their mind and home-field advantage in their pocket. After suffering a 43-40 loss to New England in Week 6, their first and only loss until the Monday Night showdown with the Rams in Week 11, Andy Reid's Chiefs led by MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes, were thought to have enough firepower to overcome the 2-time defending AFC Champions. And though they would push New England to the brink and force the game into overtime, it was Brady and Belichick who would have their hand raised when the clock hit double-zero. With the Patriots opening the game with a 15-play drive that ate up over 8 minutes, things looked grim from the start for the Chiefs. More putrid officiating would come into play, again favoring the Patriots who benefited from a bogus roughing the passer penalty late in the fourth quarter on third down which eventually led to a touchdown-scoring drive. They would later dodge a bullet with a reversed call on what appeared to be a muffed punt by Julian Edelman and received a gift on a questionable catch by Chris Hogan that appeared to touch the ground but was ruled a catch upon further review. The Chiefs would rally in a fourth quarter that saw a combined 38-points scored between the two teams, but only to see their dreams come crashing down in OT as the Patriots won the coin-toss and marched down the field without giving Kansas City a chance which now has many people in and around football crying for a rule change that would give each team the ball at least once... As much as I was pulling for K.C. in that one, no thanks.
So instead of the Chiefs-Rams Monday Night rematch we were all salivating at and crossing our fingers for, we get Patriots-Rams. Sean McVay, arguably the best young coach in the league today will now go toe to toe with undoubtedly the greatest coach of all-time in Bill Belichick in a battle of new school versus old school. Quarterbacks Jared Goff who's young enough to be the son of his counterpart versus Tom Brady who has more Super Bowl appearances than any single team, two California natives from the Bay Area will square off. Running backs Todd Gurley versus Sony Michel, two former 1st round picks from the University of Georgia. If the match-ups don't catch your attention, perhaps the stats will. A win on Super Bowl Sunday would give the Patriots the most postseason wins in NFL history as they're currently tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with 36. The Rams offense which ranks second in the league in both yards per game (421.1) and points per game (32.9), means the Patriots will have their hands full on defense once again and will need a repeat performance of what they were able to accomplish against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

One thing that's certain if the Rams want to reign victorious on Super Sunday is that they'll need a lot more help from star running back Todd Gurley. Despite the limited production against New Orleans, the Rams offense was able to get by with little to no assistance from Gurley (4 rushes, 10 yards, 1 touchdown), something I don't think they'll be able to do if they plan on taking down Brady and co. But ultimately, I think it'll be L.A.'s defense that makes the difference in this one, most notably the pass rush led by Donald and Suh. Then again the Pats offensive-line did a stellar job on Sunday by not allowing a single sack to the Chiefs who tied for the league lead in team sacks this season. With the opening line tabbing the Rams as 1-point favorites, it didn't take long for the big money to come flying in on New England who found themselves 1.5-point favorites just hours later. With all that said, I'm going Rams with the 26-20 win. Let's just hope the officiating or lack thereof doesn't play as big a role in this game as it did the previous two...


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